Rant of the Week

The Unknown Unknowns

 

Errol Morris, one of the most interesting regular contributors to the New York Times, recently discussed the question of whether incompetent people ever become aware of their own incompetence. He discussed the example of a bank robber who thought that rubbing lemon juice on his face would make him invisible to the bank's security cameras.

One thinks immediately of recent man-made disasters: Enron, the global financial melt-down, the Gulf oil spill, Greece's economy-- did the people in charge know that they could fail? Did they even know there was a danger?

Most importantly: are the same people still in charge?

I'm going back to the issue of self-knowledge. Let's not simplify-- we're not talking about taking the wrong turn on your way to the doctor's office here. When you don't arrive, you know you took the wrong street. You know how to obtain a map, look up the street names, follow the coloured lines... you know, in short, what you don't know.   Your consciousness can cope with the variables in problem confronting you.

What Morris is talking about is different. It's more akin to a Medieval witch trial. Neither the victim nor the inquisitors nor the magistrates knows that there are no witches.  The only problem they are aware of is whether the "witch" has an incriminating  birthmark somewhere on her body.  No birthmark: no witch.  Maybe.  Don't forget that the medieval magistrate also "knows" that witches are capable of the most subtle treachery and deception.  And don't forget: God would not allow a virtuous magistrate to make such a serious error in judgment-- go with your feelings, judge!  So when confronted with the problem of witchcraft, the magistrates and the church simply followed their own familiar failed strategies.   We know they failed because we know there are no witches.  Right?

So one day the magistrates find out that a witness lied and one of the women they hanged was not really a witch.  How do we prevent that from happening again?  Easy.  Next  time, we'll toss her in a pond and see if she floats.  Problem solved.

Did they "succeed"?  Here's where Morris touches upon an acuity-- how would they ever know?   They believed that capturing and burning or hanging witches would stop the witchcraft.  But it is essential to understand that it doesn't matter to them if they get rid of all of the witches or none of the witches: there will always be more witches, and each new one is proof that the old ones really were witches.  

Why, I wonder, did they ever stop burning witches?  America is still a Christian nation.  In fact, it seems to me it is far more devout, simplistic, and puritanical than ever before.  But they don't burn witches any more. 

They don't because a growing class of people who really did think differently-- they believed in science and reason-- acquired more and more influence (because of their obvious success at producing products and ideas) and prevailed in the culture wars.   They began to dominate public discourse.  They influenced leaders and legislators and poets.  It simply became uncool to believe in witches.

They might still believe in a young earth.  And miracles.  And that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.   And in a literal Garden of Eden.  But no witches.

Well, that's not true.  If you would ask them, I think they would tell you that there really are witches.   Let's not forget the Satanic Ritual Abuse scare of the 1980's.   But, after that debacle, they've returned to keeping a low profile on that one, just as many people today keep a low profile on race issues.

And so the financial institutions that led the U.S. into that massive global catastrophe are busy lobbying congressmen right now to not change the rules, improve oversight, or regulatory supervision, or demand greater accountability from the institutions that rate financial instruments.   And so the oil industry battles mightily to prevent the government from enacting tougher environmental standards for off-shore drilling.   And so the U.S. continues it's "war on drugs", Mexico be damned. 

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